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Archived Seat Projections

Conservatives in the Lead for Ontario Election
       
The following seat projection was based upon a provincial poll released in late May, whose distribution of public support was CON-41%, LIB-34% and NDP-19%. The corresponding Ontario seat projection translated to a bare majority for the Conservatives of 54 seats, Liberals 35 seats and NDP 18 seats.

Projected distribution of seats by party, released June 20, 2011

2011 Projection
2007 Results
2007 Projection
Ontario PC Logo 2010.jpg
54
26
29
35
71
68
NONDP.PNG
18
10
10

Note:

The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.