Archived Seat Projections
- NDP Maintains Momentum
2015-05-19 - Shakeup After Alberta Election
2015-05-19 - Liberals Slip in Quebec
2015-04-08 - Conservatives Edge Upward Among Mixed Regional Trends
2015-03-05 - Slight Conservative Rise
2015-01-22 - Back to a Horserace
2014-12-09 - NDP Rebounds as Polls Vary Widely
2014-10-24 - Liberals Surge in Quebec
2014-10-24 - January Polls Place Conservatives on Cusp of Majority
2013-01-30 - Liberals Make Some Gains
2012-11-29 - Seat Redistribution Benefits the Conservatives
2012-10-10 - Federal Voting Patterns Stable
2012-08-22 - NDP Honeymoon Persists
2012-05-18 - NDP Gains in Wake of Mulcair Victory
2012-05-03 - Conservatives Continue to Slide
2012-03-27 - Conservatives Slide in Ontario, NDP Down in Quebec
2012-01-30 - Post Mortem 2011
2011-10-07 - Final 2011 projection
2011-05-01 - NDP still climbing in Quebec
2011-04-27 - Tsunami in Quebec
2011-04-22 - Conservatives gravitating towards 2008 results
2011-04-20 - Conservatives Recover Marginally
2011-04-15 - Something Stirring in Quebec?
2011-04-11 - Conservative Minority Holds Steady
2011-04-08 - Liberals Cutting into Harper Majority
2011-04-06 - Conservatives Slip Out of Majority Range
2011-03-31 - New Polls Project Harper Majority
2011-03-28 - Final Projection Prior to 2008 Election
Something Stirring in Quebec?
The following projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ekos, Forum Research, Angus Reid and Nanos conducted between April 4-10, 2011, comprising over 7000 respondents. The Conservative lead in Ontario has diminished slightly to 6.5%. The accompanying projection indicates that the national and regional seat allocations have barely budged in recent weeks. One notable trend is in Quebec, where the BQ's support has slipped to 32% (compared to 38% in the last election); the NDP has jumped to 21% (versus 12% in 2008), a tie with the Liberals and slightly ahead of the Conservatives. This trend can no longer be easily dismissed as sampling error or outlying polls. It is becoming evident in a number of polling firms. The method in which the LISPOP projection is calculated emphasizes region-wide swings rather than sub-regional trends, and hence indicates only one additional seat for the NDP at the moment, Gatineau. Should there be evidence that the NDP momentum in the province is regionally concentrated as with Conservative gains in the Quebec City region in 2006, that could change the figures substantially.
Projected distribution of seats by party and region, released April 11, 2011
 |
 |
 |
 |
Other |
|
| Canada | 149 |
76 |
35 |
48 |
-- |
| 2008 Election Results | 143 |
77 |
37 |
49 |
2 |
| Atlantic provinces | 13 |
15 |
4 |
-- |
-- |
| 2008 Election Results | 10 |
17 |
4 |
-- |
1 |
| Quebec | 10 |
15 |
2 |
48 |
-- |
| 2008 Election Results | 10 |
14 |
1 |
49 |
1 |
| Ontario | 54 |
36 |
16 |
-- |
-- |
| 2008 Election Results | 51 |
38 |
17 |
-- |
-- |
| Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and territories | 25 |
3 |
3 |
-- |
-- |
| 2008 Election Results | 23 |
3 |
5 |
-- |
-- |
| Alberta | 28 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| 2008 Election Results | 27 |
-- |
1 |
-- |
-- |
| British Columbia | 19 |
7 |
10 |
-- |
-- |
| 2008 Election Results | 22 |
5 |
9 |
-- |
-- |
Note:
The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.