Archived Seat Projections

• Little Change Following Debate
  2011-10-03
• New Survey Confirms Dead Heat
  2011-09-1426
• Liberals Slip but Still in Minority Government Range
  2011-09-20
• New Polls Confirm Liberal Lead
  2011-09-14
• Conservative Lead Erodes
  2011-09-09
• Ontario Conservatives Just Shy of Majority Numbers
  2011-09-02
• Ontario Liberal Campaign Picking Up Steam
  2011-08-18
• Conservatives Making Gains in Ontario Election
  2011-07-19
• Conservatives in the Lead for Ontario Election
  2011-06-20

Conservative Lead Erodes
       
The accompanying seat projection is based upon a blended and weighted aggregation of four polls from Harris-Decima, Nanos, Angus Reid and Forum Research conducted during the period from Aug.29-Sept. 4. The overall sample comprised over 5000 interviews. It should be noted that the one with the most recent time frame Harris-Decima, is at some variance with the others showing a substantial Liberal lead while the others all showed narrower Conservative leads. The NDP support level is almost identical throughout. When they are combined, the Liberals and Conservatives are in a virtual tie in popular support, but the application of the regional swing model produces a Liberal lead in seats. The safest conclusion to be drawn at the moment, is that we are now in minority government territory.

Projected distribution of seats by party, released September 9, 2011

	2011 Projection	2007 Results	2007 Projection
	41	26	29
	48	71	68
	18	10	10

Note:

The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.