Archived Seat Projections
- NDP Maintains Momentum
2015-05-19 - Shakeup After Alberta Election
2015-05-19 - Liberals Slip in Quebec
2015-04-08 - Conservatives Edge Upward Among Mixed Regional Trends
2015-03-05 - Slight Conservative Rise
2015-01-22 - Back to a Horserace
2014-12-09 - NDP Rebounds as Polls Vary Widely
2014-10-24 - Liberals Surge in Quebec
2014-10-24 - January Polls Place Conservatives on Cusp of Majority
2013-01-30 - Liberals Make Some Gains
2012-11-29 - Seat Redistribution Benefits the Conservatives
2012-10-10 - Federal Voting Patterns Stable
2012-08-22 - NDP Honeymoon Persists
2012-05-18 - NDP Gains in Wake of Mulcair Victory
2012-05-03 - Conservatives Continue to Slide
2012-03-27 - Conservatives Slide in Ontario, NDP Down in Quebec
2012-01-30 - Post Mortem 2011
2011-10-07 - Final 2011 projection
2011-05-01 - NDP still climbing in Quebec
2011-04-27 - Tsunami in Quebec
2011-04-22 - Conservatives gravitating towards 2008 results
2011-04-20 - Conservatives Recover Marginally
2011-04-15 - Something Stirring in Quebec?
2011-04-11 - Conservative Minority Holds Steady
2011-04-08 - Liberals Cutting into Harper Majority
2011-04-06 - Conservatives Slip Out of Majority Range
2011-03-31 - New Polls Project Harper Majority
2011-03-28 - Final Projection Prior to 2008 Election
Conservatives Continue to Slide
An analysis of polls conducted by Environics and Ipsos Reid between March 6-18 on an aggregate sample of about 4600 respondents projects a drop in Conservative Party strength to 133 seats, a loss of 33 seats from its 2011 election victory, while the NDP's strength is projected to 97 seats. The Liberal Party's current standing projects to 57 seats, with 20 seats for the Bloc Quebecois. These two polls were conducted before the weekend's NDP leadership convention that selected Thomas Mulcair. It might be noted that the regional swing model employed by LISPOP uses regional data only, not national percentages. Of these two polls Environics found the NDP and Conservatives tied nationwide, but Ipsos showed an 8% Conservative lead. Nonetheless, the vote split in Quebec was virtually identical in the respective polls, and the Ontario survey results varied by only about two percentage points between them. It was particularly in western Canada that Ipsos showed the Conservatives well ahead. Compared to the 2011 federal election, the main change in seats was NDP slippage in Quebec, largely to the BQ, and a Conservative decline in Ontario mostly benefitting the Liberals. One other cautionary note, is that by necessity this projection makes use of the old constituency boundaries which will not be in effect for the 2015 election.
Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released January 30, 2012
 |
 |
 |
 |
Other |
|
| Canada | 133(166) |
97(103) |
57(34) |
20(4) |
1(1) |
| Atlantic provinces | 12(14) |
8(6) |
12(12) |
-- |
-- |
| Quebec | 5(5) |
41(59) |
9(7) |
20(4) |
-- |
| Ontario | 52(73) |
24(22) |
30(11) |
-- |
-- |
| Prairies & North | 20(26) |
8(3) |
3(2) |
-- |
-- |
| Alberta | 27(27) |
1(1) |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| British Columbia | 17(21) |
15(12) |
3(2) |
-- |
1(1) |
Note:
The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.