Archived Seat Projections
- NDP Maintains Momentum
2015-05-19 - Shakeup After Alberta Election
2015-05-19 - Liberals Slip in Quebec
2015-04-08 - Conservatives Edge Upward Among Mixed Regional Trends
2015-03-05 - Slight Conservative Rise
2015-01-22 - Back to a Horserace
2014-12-09 - NDP Rebounds as Polls Vary Widely
2014-10-24 - Liberals Surge in Quebec
2014-10-24 - January Polls Place Conservatives on Cusp of Majority
2013-01-30 - Liberals Make Some Gains
2012-11-29 - Seat Redistribution Benefits the Conservatives
2012-10-10 - Federal Voting Patterns Stable
2012-08-22 - NDP Honeymoon Persists
2012-05-18 - NDP Gains in Wake of Mulcair Victory
2012-05-03 - Conservatives Continue to Slide
2012-03-27 - Conservatives Slide in Ontario, NDP Down in Quebec
2012-01-30 - Post Mortem 2011
2011-10-07 - Final 2011 projection
2011-05-01 - NDP still climbing in Quebec
2011-04-27 - Tsunami in Quebec
2011-04-22 - Conservatives gravitating towards 2008 results
2011-04-20 - Conservatives Recover Marginally
2011-04-15 - Something Stirring in Quebec?
2011-04-11 - Conservative Minority Holds Steady
2011-04-08 - Liberals Cutting into Harper Majority
2011-04-06 - Conservatives Slip Out of Majority Range
2011-03-31 - New Polls Project Harper Majority
2011-03-28 - Final Projection Prior to 2008 Election
Shakeup After Alberta Election
The following seat projection differs from others typically produced for LISPOP, in that it is based upon a smaller aggregate sample approximately 4,000 respondents including Ekos, Forum and Insights Canada (BC only), and is drawn from a shorter than usual time frame (since May 6 following the Alberta election). This decision was made because public opinion has seemed to move significantly over this time period. During the previous six months, Canadian political support had appeared to lock into a pattern where our seat projections had hardly changed at all beyond variance attributable to sampling error. Over that time our projections hadn't varied by more than five seats from 137 Conservatives, 119 Liberals and 76 New Democrats. It might be a short-term blip, but something has dramatically changed over the past two weeks, with most notable impact in Quebec, BC and Alberta, largely favouring the NDP. The result is the closest thing to a three-way tie we have ever experienced in seat projections. Along the table presented below, the seat projection is also illustrated on a map of Canada's new 338 districts, which will be contested in the next federal election: http://lispop.ca/elections/fed2015.html
Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released May 19, 2015
 |
 |
 |
 |
Other |
|
| Canada | 128(166) |
103(34) |
104(103) |
2(4) |
1(1) |
| Atlantic provinces | 6(14) |
22(12) |
4(6) |
-- |
-- |
| Quebec | 9(5) |
18(7) |
49(59) |
2(4) |
-- |
| Ontario | 56(73) |
45(11) |
20(22) |
-- |
-- |
| Prairies & North | 17(26) |
7(2) |
7(3) |
-- |
-- |
| Alberta | 27(27) |
2(0) |
5(1) |
-- |
-- |
| British Columbia | 13(21) |
9(2) |
19(12) |
-- |
1(1) |
Note:
The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.