Archived Seat Projections
- NDP Maintains Momentum
2015-05-19 - Shakeup After Alberta Election
2015-05-19 - Liberals Slip in Quebec
2015-04-08 - Conservatives Edge Upward Among Mixed Regional Trends
2015-03-05 - Slight Conservative Rise
2015-01-22 - Back to a Horserace
2014-12-09 - NDP Rebounds as Polls Vary Widely
2014-10-24 - Liberals Surge in Quebec
2014-10-24 - January Polls Place Conservatives on Cusp of Majority
2013-01-30 - Liberals Make Some Gains
2012-11-29 - Seat Redistribution Benefits the Conservatives
2012-10-10 - Federal Voting Patterns Stable
2012-08-22 - NDP Honeymoon Persists
2012-05-18 - NDP Gains in Wake of Mulcair Victory
2012-05-03 - Conservatives Continue to Slide
2012-03-27 - Conservatives Slide in Ontario, NDP Down in Quebec
2012-01-30 - Post Mortem 2011
2011-10-07 - Final 2011 projection
2011-05-01 - NDP still climbing in Quebec
2011-04-27 - Tsunami in Quebec
2011-04-22 - Conservatives gravitating towards 2008 results
2011-04-20 - Conservatives Recover Marginally
2011-04-15 - Something Stirring in Quebec?
2011-04-11 - Conservative Minority Holds Steady
2011-04-08 - Liberals Cutting into Harper Majority
2011-04-06 - Conservatives Slip Out of Majority Range
2011-03-31 - New Polls Project Harper Majority
2011-03-28 - Final Projection Prior to 2008 Election
NDP Maintains Momentum
The accompanying seat projection is drawn from a blended sample of surveys from such pollsters as Abacus, Ekos and Ipsos Reid that were conducted since May 6. This included some 11,000 interviews, but excluded surveys that were partially conducted prior to the Alberta election, because that event seemed to coincide with a dramatic change in public opinion swinging to the New Democratic Party. That trend was most evidenced in Quebec voting patterns, but was also apparent in the western provinces. The relative three-way split found in national opinion polls of late, masks significant regional divisions, with the NDP dominant in Quebec, the Conservatives strongest in the rural west, and the Liberals supreme in Atlantic Canada, with Ontario largely divided between Liberal urban support, and the Conservatives well ahead in rural areas and smaller communities. The Ontario projection was based upon a slight one percetange-point Conservative lead over the Liberals in aggregate vote, but in Quebec the NDP lead in popular support was 14 percentage points over the Liberals. Among other observations to be noted, none of the parties is anywhere near majority government territory. Along the table presented below, the seat projection is also illustrated on a map of Canada's new 338 districts, which will be contested in the next federal election: http://lispop.ca/elections/fed2015.html.
Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released June 9, 2015
 |
 |
 |
 |
Other |
|
| Canada | 124(166) |
102(34) |
108(103) |
3(4) |
1(1) |
| Atlantic provinces | 6(14) |
22(12) |
4(6) |
-- |
-- |
| Quebec | 8(5) |
15(7) |
52(59) |
3(4) |
-- |
| Ontario | 54(73) |
47(11) |
20(22) |
-- |
-- |
| Prairies & North | 15(26) |
7(2) |
9(3) |
-- |
-- |
| Alberta | 27(27) |
2(0) |
5(1) |
-- |
-- |
| British Columbia | 14(21) |
9(2) |
18(12) |
-- |
1(1) |
Note:
The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.