Archived Seat Projections
- NDP Maintains Momentum
2015-05-19 - Shakeup After Alberta Election
2015-05-19 - Liberals Slip in Quebec
2015-04-08 - Conservatives Edge Upward Among Mixed Regional Trends
2015-03-05 - Slight Conservative Rise
2015-01-22 - Back to a Horserace
2014-12-09 - NDP Rebounds as Polls Vary Widely
2014-10-24 - Liberals Surge in Quebec
2014-10-24 - January Polls Place Conservatives on Cusp of Majority
2013-01-30 - Liberals Make Some Gains
2012-11-29 - Seat Redistribution Benefits the Conservatives
2012-10-10 - Federal Voting Patterns Stable
2012-08-22 - NDP Honeymoon Persists
2012-05-18 - NDP Gains in Wake of Mulcair Victory
2012-05-03 - Conservatives Continue to Slide
2012-03-27 - Conservatives Slide in Ontario, NDP Down in Quebec
2012-01-30 - Post Mortem 2011
2011-10-07 - Final 2011 projection
2011-05-01 - NDP still climbing in Quebec
2011-04-27 - Tsunami in Quebec
2011-04-22 - Conservatives gravitating towards 2008 results
2011-04-20 - Conservatives Recover Marginally
2011-04-15 - Something Stirring in Quebec?
2011-04-11 - Conservative Minority Holds Steady
2011-04-08 - Liberals Cutting into Harper Majority
2011-04-06 - Conservatives Slip Out of Majority Range
2011-03-31 - New Polls Project Harper Majority
2011-03-28 - Final Projection Prior to 2008 Election
Federal Voting Patterns Stable
A blend of polls conducted by Forum Research and Abacus between July 25 and Aug. 12 on an aggregate sample of about 3700 respondents projects Conservative Party strength at around 133 seats, 120 seats for the New Democratic Party, 46 for the Liberal Party, 8 for the Bloc Québécois and 1 for the Green Party. The polls and seat projection indicate that popular support levels have not moved appreciably since the previous LISPOP projection three months ago. Where there has been some modest change, it is most evident where the Conservatives have gained some seats particularly at the expense of the Liberals, and the Prairie and BC regions where the NDP has picked up seats from the Conservatives. It should be remembered that this analysis is being conducted with the old constituency distribution, that will not be in effect for the next general election.
Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released August 22, 2012
 |
 |
 |
 |
Other |
|
| Canada | 133(166) |
120(103) |
46(34) |
8(4) |
1(1) |
| Atlantic provinces | 10(14) |
9(6) |
13(12) |
-- |
-- |
| Quebec | 5(5) |
55(59) |
7(7) |
8(4) |
-- |
| Ontario | 59(73) |
25(22) |
22(11) |
-- |
-- |
| Prairies & North | 18(26) |
11(3) |
2(2) |
-- |
-- |
| Alberta | 27(27) |
1(1) |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| British Columbia | 14(21) |
19(12) |
2(2) |
-- |
1(1) |
Note:
The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.