Archived Seat Projections
- NDP Maintains Momentum
2015-05-19 - Shakeup After Alberta Election
2015-05-19 - Liberals Slip in Quebec
2015-04-08 - Conservatives Edge Upward Among Mixed Regional Trends
2015-03-05 - Slight Conservative Rise
2015-01-22 - Back to a Horserace
2014-12-09 - NDP Rebounds as Polls Vary Widely
2014-10-24 - Liberals Surge in Quebec
2014-10-24 - January Polls Place Conservatives on Cusp of Majority
2013-01-30 - Liberals Make Some Gains
2012-11-29 - Seat Redistribution Benefits the Conservatives
2012-10-10 - Federal Voting Patterns Stable
2012-08-22 - NDP Honeymoon Persists
2012-05-18 - NDP Gains in Wake of Mulcair Victory
2012-05-03 - Conservatives Continue to Slide
2012-03-27 - Conservatives Slide in Ontario, NDP Down in Quebec
2012-01-30 - Post Mortem 2011
2011-10-07 - Final 2011 projection
2011-05-01 - NDP still climbing in Quebec
2011-04-27 - Tsunami in Quebec
2011-04-22 - Conservatives gravitating towards 2008 results
2011-04-20 - Conservatives Recover Marginally
2011-04-15 - Something Stirring in Quebec?
2011-04-11 - Conservative Minority Holds Steady
2011-04-08 - Liberals Cutting into Harper Majority
2011-04-06 - Conservatives Slip Out of Majority Range
2011-03-31 - New Polls Project Harper Majority
2011-03-28 - Final Projection Prior to 2008 Election
NDP Rebounds as Polls Vary Widely
In conjunction with the following LISPOP seat projection, it must be observed that the current crop of polls utilized varies well beyond appropriate estimates that should be based upon the assumptions of probability samples. Although the entire cluster is drawn from a four-week period published between Sept. 19 to Oct. 17, in the key province of Ontario polls published 10 days apart range from a 20 percentage-point Liberal lead over the Conservatives, to a two-point Conservative lead. Likewise, also over a 10 day period, polls of Quebec vary from a 14-point Liberal lead over the NDP to a 10-point NDP lead. This phenomenon of poll results "all over the place" is occurring with increasing frequency, and is why LISPOP is choosing to incorporate more polls in projections even if they range over a longer time period. It is intended to mitigate the impact of outliers. The following seat projection is drawn from surveys conducted by Angus Reid, Ekos, Forum Research and Abacus among an aggregate sample of 6800 drawn from a mixture of different methodologies. The actual vote preference averages used are a 10-percentage point Liberal lead in Ontario, and a one-point Liberal lead in Quebec.
Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released October 24, 2014
 |
 |
 |
 |
Other |
|
| Canada |
136(34) |
114(166) |
85(103) |
2(4) |
1(1) |
| Atlantic provinces |
21(12) |
7(14) |
4(6) |
-- |
-- |
| Quebec |
30(7) |
7(5) |
39(59) |
2(4) |
-- |
| Ontario |
63(11) |
40(73) |
18(22) |
-- |
-- |
| Prairies & North |
8(2) |
14(26) |
9(3) |
-- |
-- |
| Alberta |
2(0) |
31(27) |
1(1) |
-- |
-- |
| British Columbia |
12(2) |
15(21) |
14(12) |
-- |
1(1) |
Note:
The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.