Archived Seat Projections
- NDP Maintains Momentum
2015-05-19 - Shakeup After Alberta Election
2015-05-19 - Liberals Slip in Quebec
2015-04-08 - Conservatives Edge Upward Among Mixed Regional Trends
2015-03-05 - Slight Conservative Rise
2015-01-22 - Back to a Horserace
2014-12-09 - NDP Rebounds as Polls Vary Widely
2014-10-24 - Liberals Surge in Quebec
2014-10-24 - January Polls Place Conservatives on Cusp of Majority
2013-01-30 - Liberals Make Some Gains
2012-11-29 - Seat Redistribution Benefits the Conservatives
2012-10-10 - Federal Voting Patterns Stable
2012-08-22 - NDP Honeymoon Persists
2012-05-18 - NDP Gains in Wake of Mulcair Victory
2012-05-03 - Conservatives Continue to Slide
2012-03-27 - Conservatives Slide in Ontario, NDP Down in Quebec
2012-01-30 - Post Mortem 2011
2011-10-07 - Final 2011 projection
2011-05-01 - NDP still climbing in Quebec
2011-04-27 - Tsunami in Quebec
2011-04-22 - Conservatives gravitating towards 2008 results
2011-04-20 - Conservatives Recover Marginally
2011-04-15 - Something Stirring in Quebec?
2011-04-11 - Conservative Minority Holds Steady
2011-04-08 - Liberals Cutting into Harper Majority
2011-04-06 - Conservatives Slip Out of Majority Range
2011-03-31 - New Polls Project Harper Majority
2011-03-28 - Final Projection Prior to 2008 Election
Back to a Horserace
The following seat projection drawn from polls conducted in November indicates a substantial tightening of Canadian public opinion reflecting an erosion of the Liberal lead in recent months. While the Liberals still maintain an approximate two percentage-point lead in popular support nationally, their decline in Ontario from a 10- to a two-point margin over the Conservatives since the previous LISPOP projection largely accounts for a modest Conservative plurality in seats. Data presented here are derived from a blended and weighted aggregation of polls released between Nov. 4 and Dec. 1 conducted by Ipsos, Ekos, Leger and Abacus among others, including some 13,000 respondents. It should be noted however that the large Ipsos sample represented well over half the respondents, and has been weighted accordingly. The most obvious conclusion to be drawn from this is that we might well be heading toward a minority government. A heartening observation of this set of polls is that they were basically in regional alignment with each other, meaning there wasn't the unsettling level of variance noted in the previous projection of Oct. 24.
Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released December 9, 2014
 |
 |
 |
 |
Other |
|
| Canada |
123(34) |
132(166) |
80(103) |
2(4) |
1(1) |
| Atlantic provinces |
24(12) |
5(14) |
3(6) |
-- |
-- |
| Quebec |
28(7) |
8(5) |
40(59) |
2(4) |
-- |
| Ontario |
52(11) |
52(73) |
17(22) |
-- |
-- |
| Prairies & North |
7(2) |
17(26) |
7(3) |
-- |
-- |
| Alberta |
1(0) |
32(27) |
1(1) |
-- |
-- |
| British Columbia |
11(2) |
18(21) |
12(12) |
-- |
1(1) |
Note:
The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.